Climate Analysis: Potential Sea Level Rise in Virginia

The U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit helped me select the sea level change scenarios shown on my map. The website broke down several scenarios for sea level increases from 2020 to 2100, and I subtracted the difference in sea level rises and converted them to feet. I used the scenarios intermediate, high, and extreme to correspond to moderate, severe, and extreme on my map. This website informed me that sea levels have been substantially rising since 1900 due to climate change caused by humans (U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit, 2019). The graphs on this website also reflect different assumptions held by scientists about the rates of global sea-level rise. There are both conservative and aggressive predictions, which depend on the choices that the world will make regarding combating climate change and reducing global emissions. There are several other causes of rising sea levels, including land sinkage. In some towns, land sinkage is the primary contributor to the rising sea levels (Sea Level Rise). For example, according to Sea Level Rise, sinking land is causing the sea level to rise in Virginia, which has prompted the state to invest over $4 billion in infrastructure-related solutions. Additionally, the warming of the ocean due to climate change causes the ocean to expand, which is another contributor to the rising sea levels in Virginia.

The sea-level change scenarios that I modeled show the effects of climate change-related coastal flooding near Virginia Beach and the surrounding areas. Virginia is one of the riskiest states in terms of losing valuable assets from sea-level changes. In fact, Virginia has the 10th highest value of assets that would be exposed to flooding from rising sea levels. When the sea level changes by just 2.84 feet, we can see that a large portion of the map is colored dark blue. This area includes golf courses, residential homes, and academic institutions, all of which are at risk even with moderate sea-level changes. If the sea level were to rise by 6.20 feet, even more residential areas and schools would disappear, and if the sea level rose by 7.84 feet, the flooding would encompass many areas that are on the mainland. Although the coastal areas are more at risk with even a moderate increase, the inner areas still will face the consequences of climate change if the extreme model were to come to fruition. Overall, Virginia Beach will face extreme losses even with a moderate rise in sea levels due to its high density of residential areas and schools.

References

Sea Level Rise. (n.d.). Sea Level Rise Causes. Retrieved July 07, 2020, from https://sealevelrise.org/causes

U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit. (2019, September 19). Retrieved July 07, 2020, from https://toolkit.climate.gov/topics/coatal/sea-level-rise